Scenarios Workshop

Reading, UK, 18-19 August 2003

To launch GECAFS research in Scenarios research, and to determine:

Clear definitions of global and regional scenarios with respect to GECAFS studies.
How the scenarios will be used.
Who will use the scenarios.
Which variables and conditions must be specified.
Next steps.

The workshop organisers gratefully acknowledge financial assistance from the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP).

(Detailed timings and breaks have been deleted for this web report version)

Discussion on workshop objectives

GECAFS plans to date

Initial concepts (0.18Mb) - Mike Brklacich

Further considerations - Doug Whelpdale

Discussion on overall role of scenarios in defining and framing GECAFS research

Introduction to scenario approaches

Overview and EEA approach (0.25Mb) - Thomas Henrichs

(see also the European Environment Agency report: Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments: http://reports.eea.eu.int/environmental_issue_report_2001_24/en)

IPCC approach (3.3Mb) - Linda Mearns

IIASA approach (10Mb) - Mahendra Shah

Discussion

Scenario development for GECAFS

Global-level issues (0.18Mb) - Thomas Henrichs

IGP food systems issues - Pramod Aggarwal

Caribbean food system issues (0.04Mb) - Richard Harrison

Southern African food system issues (Presentation (0.5Mb) & Paper (0.35Mb)) - Martin Muchero

Discussion

Breakout groups: Key issues for GECAFS global scenarios: parameters and variables

Tuesday 19 August 2003

Report back on global issues (0.03Mb)

Breakout groups: Key issues for GECAFS regional scenarios: parameters and variables

Developing regional scenarios within global scenarios and use of scenarios cross-cutting theme for integration within GECAFS – Discussion

Recommendations for follow-up workshop and links to other scenarios groups